1956～2006年玛纳斯河流域棉花生长季气候变化分析  

Analysis on the Climate Change of Cotton Growing Season in the Manas River Basin

作　　者：孙自武[1] 任岗[2] 周君[1] 程莲[2] 樊华[2] 张凤华[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学／新疆兵团绿洲生态农业重点实验室,新疆石河子832003 [2]石河子气象局,新疆石河子832003

出　　处：《石河子大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第5期552-556,共5页Journal of Shihezi University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30760105)

摘　　要：利用Man-Kendall法、墨西哥帽小波分析法,研究了玛纳斯河流域1956～2006年棉花生长季平均气温、降水量和日照时数的变化趋势和周期规律。结果表明:玛纳斯河流域棉花生长季气候变化的总体趋势向暖湿的方向发展,日照时数略有减少,其中平均气温变化的倾向率为0.36℃/10年,增温的幅度达到了极显著水平;不同时期气候变化的趋势差别很大,20世纪50、60年代平均气温的波动比较大,70年代以后气温表现出明显的上升趋势,并在1975～2006年的31年间达到0.05显著水平;棉花生长季气候变化的周期分析结果表明,棉花生长季气温、降水和日照时数均存在25～30年时间尺度的高低或多少交替,表现出明显的周期特性,并且变化周期均以30年左右的长周期为主。In this study,the date of average air temperature,rainfall and sunshine hours of cotton growing season were used to analyze the climate change in the Manas River Basin since the latest 51 years using Man-Kendall method and Mexico hat wavelet analysis.The results are as follows：Generally,the mean climate of cotton growing season in the Manas River Basin changes to the trend of warm and humid and sunshine hours has a downward trend.The tendency of the average air temperature change rate is 0.36℃/10a,the rate of warming reached a significant level;different periods of climate change are very different,the average air temperatures have great volatility in 1950s and 1960s,the air temperatures have marked upward trend since the 1970s and reached 0.05 significant level in the 31 years between 1975～2006.The analysis about which cycle of cotton growing season climate change showed that：there are obvious periodic oscillation of 25-30a for the air temperature,rainfall and sunshine hour of cotton growing season,and periodic changes are about 30 years of long-period.

关 键 词：棉花生长季 气候变化 墨西哥小帽小波 

分 类 号：S162.54[农业科学—农业气象学]