非线性矿井瓦斯涌出量预测及基于.NET的开发应用  

Nonlinear Forecast of Mine Gas Emission and .NET Based Software Development

作　　者：赵振保[1,2] 郑登锋 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院,北京100083 [2]山西煤炭职业技术学院机电工程系,山西太原030031 [3]中国石油集团西部管道有限公司,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《中北大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第6期515-520,共6页Journal of North University of China(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2006BAK03B0303)

摘　　要：分析了地质因素和工程因素对矿井瓦斯涌出量的影响,提出了瓦斯涌出量非线性回归预测方法.根据矿井实际情况确定了需要分析的影响因素,通过STATISTICA统计软件中的Nonlinear Estimation和FixedNonlinear regression模块建立和检验了瓦斯涌出量非线性回归数学模型,得出非线性回归数学模型瓦斯涌出量与主要影响因素具有较高的相关性.应用.NET提供的可视化界面及C#程序语言开发了瓦斯涌出量非线性预测软件,通过对成庄矿3390采面预测效果验证,表明非线性回归预测方法对矿井瓦斯涌出量预测是可行的.Influence of geological and engineering factors on mine gas emission is analyzed. Nonlinear regression method is proposed for forecast of mine gas emission. Influencing factors are first determined according to practical mine conditions, and then the nonlinear mathematical regression model is established and verified based on the nonlinear estimation module and the fixed nonlinear regression module of the STATISTICA software. It is found that gas emission has high correlation with influencing factors for the model. The nonlinear mine gas emission forecast software was developed based on advanced programming language C ~： and visual interface provided by . NET. The forecast result for No. 3390 working face of Chengzhuang mine shows that it is feasible to forecast mine gas emission through nonlinear regression method.

关 键 词：非线性回归 瓦斯涌出量 多元预测 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计] TD712.5[理学—数学]