马尔可夫链模型在森林资源预测中的应用  

Markovian Chain Model in Application to Predication of Forest Resources

作　　者：袁传武[1] 史玉虎[1] 唐万鹏[1] 蔡晟[1] 田元玲[2] 谯四红[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省林业科学研究院,武汉430079 [2]湖北省林科院石首杨树研究所,沙市434400

出　　处：《湖北林业科技》2009年第1期9-12,24,共5页Hubei Forestry Science and Technology

摘　　要：应用马尔可夫链建立了鄂西三峡库区森林资源时空变化预测模型。预测结果表明:库区到2010年时林地面积达到830 165hm2,比目前增加4 022hm2,到2030年前后达到相对稳定状态,林地面积达到834 638hm2,比目前约增加10 495hm2,比现有林地增加12.7%。达到稳定状态时,森林资源总体结构与目前相比不会发生根本性改变,林地覆盖率由目前的46.8%增加到62.4%,林地质量和生产潜力都有所提高。The authors established the forest resources prediction model of temporal and spatial variation by Markov Model in the three Gorges Reservoir region of western Hubei. The result shows that by 2010, woodland area will reach 830 165 hm^2 and increase 4 022 hm^2 , after 2030 there will be a relatively stable state, woodland area will reach 834 638 hm^2 , an increase of approximately 10 495 hm^2 than the current and the 12.7% increase in existing woodlands. Reached steady state, and the overall structure of forest resources compared to the present there will be no fundamental change, the current forest coverage from 46.8% to 62.4%, woodland quality and production potential has also been enhanced.

关 键 词：马尔可夫链模型 鄂西三峡库区 森林资源 预测模型 

分 类 号：S757.2[农业科学—森林经理学] TP391.41[农业科学—林学]