南水北调西线工程调水区径流序列特性分析  

Analysis of run-off characteristic of south-to-north water transfer scheme via the western route in water-exporting region

作　　者：门宝辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学可再生能源学院,北京102206

出　　处：《辽宁工程技术大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第1期149-151,共3页Journal of Liaoning Technical University (Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50809027)

摘　　要：应用重构相空间技术和混沌理论对月径流时间序列的特性进行了分析。以南水北调西线工程调水区主要河流附近的甘孜、朱巴等4个水文站月径流时间序列为对象,研究了嵌入相空间维数和关联维数之间的变化关系,得到了饱和关联维数和最小嵌入维数,结果表明:当最小嵌入维数超过6时,关联维数逐渐趋于稳定,即达到饱和,得到饱和关联维数在1.1～1.5之间,说明这些月径流序列可能具有混沌特性,这一研究结果为利用混沌理论来建立径流的预测模型提供了较为科学的依据。The chaotic behavior of monthly runoff time series is analyzed with the phase-space reconstruction technique and chaotic theory. The runoff time series of main hydrology station on the south-to-north transfer via western route is studied. Relationship between embedding dimension and correlation dimension is discussed and saturation correlation dimension, minimum embedding dimension are calculated. The results show that the correlation dimension will be steady with the minimum embedding dimension exceeding 6, and the saturation correlation dimension is between 1.1 and 1.5, that is, the rtmoff time series is possibly chaotic. This research result can provide a scientific gist for runoff forecasting by chaotic theory.

关 键 词：南水北调西线 径流 关联维数 嵌入维数 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]