基于三法融合的软件项目进度估计方法研究  

Software Project Schedule Estimation Based on Three Methods Integration

作　　者：张俊光[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国软科学》2009年第1期175-181,共7页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家软科学研究计划重大项目(2007GXQ4B117)

摘　　要：为保证软件项目进度估计结果的有效性,提高项目成功率,研究了一种定量的、系统的软件项目进度估算方法。该方法通过研究传统的类比法、PERT法和Delphi法三种方法的特点,试图克服三种方法所固有的缺点,并发扬各自的优点。通过以Delphi法为原型,在专家估计过程中,将PERT法和类比法融入其中,从而形成一种新的模型估算体系。该模型能够克服因数据差距较大而导致类比法失效的缺点,也能够克服Delphi法过分信赖专家经验的不足及人们对于PERT法有效性的质疑。通过实际应用数据的比较表明,该模型的估算结果具有较高的可信度和可用性。To ensure the result validity of software project schedule estimation and improve the success rate of software projects, a quantitative and systemic estimation method for software project schedule was studied. This model tries to overcome the inherent shortcomings of three methods and develop their own merits by studying the characteristics of traditional analog method, PERT method and Delphi method. This model set Delphi method as a prototype, combined with PERT method and analogy method during the estimation of the experts. This model could overcome the shortcomings that the big data gaps would cause the analogy method failure and the Delphi method depended too much on the experience of the experts. This model could also overcome the peoples＇ suspicion of the PERT method＇ s effectiveness. The practical application data shows that the reliability and availability of the estimation result of this model are high.

关 键 词：软件项目 进度估计 类比法 PERT DELPHI 三法融合 

分 类 号：TP311.5[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]