应用分割平均法对比分析银川市1959-2005年重点监测传染病发病趋势  

Monitor for trends in the incidence of infectious diseases in Yinchuan City from 1959 to 2005

作　　者：雷静[1] 曹俊隰[1] 杨嵘[1] 胡皓[1] 于明哲[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏银川市疾病预防控制中心,宁夏银川750001

出　　处：《宁夏医学杂志》2009年第2期117-118,共2页Ningxia Medical Journal

摘　　要：目的探讨银川市近50年以来法定传染病发病趋势,分析重点监测的传染病的流行特点和流行规律。方法应用按时间分布描绘传染病发病曲线和用时间序列分割平均法计算分析重点传染病变动规律两种方法进行对比分析。结果银川市1959-2005年总传染病以及麻疹、痢疾和猩红热发病呈下降趋势;病毒性肝炎和淋病发病呈上升趋势。结论探讨性地采用时间序列分析中的分割平均法找出传染病发病变动规律,并利用直线的性质预测发病趋势,为开展传染病预防控制提供科学依据。Objective To discuss the legal infectious disease morbidity tendency, to analyze characteristic and the regularity of epidemic of infectious disease＇s in Yinchuan, to provide the scientific basis for the science formulation infectious disease prevention and control measure. Methods The time distribution description was used for infectious disease morbidity curve and the time series division method of average computation was used for analyzing characteristic and the regularity of epidemic of the key infectious disease. Results From 1959 to 2005, total infectious disease such as measles, dysentery and scarlet fever morbidity assumed the declining trend; The hepatitis and gonorrhea morbidity increased the trend of escalation. Conclusions This article discusses the nature to use in the time series analysis the division method of average to discover the infectious disease morbidity change rule, and using the straight line nature forecast morbidity tendency, to carry out the infectious disease anticipatory control to provide the scientific basis.

关 键 词：传染病 发病趋势 分割平均法 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]