高原东部及邻近地区空中水汽资源的气候变化特征  

Features of Climate Change of Water Vapor Resource over Eastern Region of the Tibetan Plateau and Its Surroundings

作　　者：周长艳[1] 蒋兴文[1] 李跃清[1] 蔚国才 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610072 [2]成都市防雷中心环境评价室,四川成都640071

出　　处：《高原气象》2009年第1期55-63,共9页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2007-23);四川省气象局课题(重08-05);成都高原气象研究所基本业务专项(BROP200702)共同资助

摘　　要：利用欧洲中心月平均再分析资料,通过多种统计诊断方法,分析了高原东部及邻近地区空中水汽资源的气候变化特征,结果表明:1958—2001年以来,区域平均的年大气可降水量总体呈减少趋势,减少率为3 kg.m-2.(10a)-1;区域总水汽收入也呈减少趋势,减少率为6×105kg.(10a)-1;夏季风携带的南来水汽在高原东部及邻近地区扩展强度的减弱是整个区域水汽收入减少的主要原因;在全球气候变暖的背景下,源于中高纬地区水汽输送的影响值得关注。对于本文的研究欧洲中心再分析资料是比较适用的,在定性趋势方面得到的结论是可信的。Based on the monthly reanalysis data provided by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF）, features of climate change of water vapor resource over the eastern region of the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings are studied. The monthly reanalysis data provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） and radiosonde data provided by China Meteorological Administration are also used to comparativly analyzed. The main results are as follows： From 1958 to 2001, the regional average of yearly atmospheric precipitable water had been decreased in 44 years, with an average decreasing rate of 3 kg · m^-2 · （10a）^-1. But it is worth noting that there is an obvious increasing trend from the late 1980s. In the four seasons, the regional averaged atmospheric precipitable water had a decline trend, the with a obvious rate of 1 kg · m ^-2· （10a）^-1 in spring and summer, and 0.9 kg · m^-2 · （10a）^-1 in autumn, and the decreasing rate of winter is faint. At same phase, the regional moisture budget also had a evident decreased trend in 44 years, with an average decreasing rate of 6×10^5kg·（10a）^-1. Except for the winter, the regional moisture budget of which had a faint increase trend in 44 years, the other three seasons＇s moisture budget had been decreased. So, in a word, the water vapor resource over the eastern region of the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings had a decrease trend from 1958 to 2001. The weakeness of northward and westward march of the water vapor transport with summer monsoon has an important influence on the variation of water vapor resource in the region. In comparison with radiosonde data provided by China Meteorological Administration, it is found the results based on the ERA-40 reanalysis data are believable.

关 键 词：青藏高原东部及邻近地区 空中水汽资源 大气可降水量 水汽收支 

分 类 号：P461.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]