农户消费决定因素:基于有序probit模型  

A study on Ordered Probit Model to the Factor of Farmer Household's Consumption Decision

作　　者：郝爱民[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州航空工业管理学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2009年第3期98-105,共8页Finance & Economics

基　　金：河南省哲学社会科学规划项目"提高河南省农民消费能力问题研究"(2007BJJ021)资助

摘　　要：本文以问卷调查数据为基础,利用有序Probit模型建立农户消费需求模型,分析微观因素对农户消费的影响,模型的计量经济分析表明:(1)农户家庭的经济状况对农户的消费有重要的影响。低收入家庭消费意愿明显高于高收入家庭;(2)户主个人因素对农户消费意愿有重要影响。户主受教育水平的提高以及户主主业的非农化对农户消费有积极的影响;(3)农村金融发展和农村保险体系完善与农户的消费意愿呈正相关;(4)农村居民消费环境对农户消费意愿有重要影响。并据此提出了相应对策。This paper is based on consumer＇ s questionnaire census data, utilize ordered Probit model to set up framer household＇ s consumption demand model, analyze the micro factor which influence on framer household＇ s consumption, Get the following conclusion ： （1） The framer household＇ s income has important influence on consumption of framer household＇ s consumption. The consumption will of low- income household is obviously higher than the well- to- do family. （2） Householder＇ s personal factor has important influence on framer household＇ s consumption will. The householder＇ s education level is improved and householder＇ s staple one consume positive influence to framer households non- agriculturally. （3） Insurance and can convenient loan get money present positive correlation to framer household consumption will. （4） The environment of rural consumption of resident has important influence on framer household＇ s consumption will. At last this paper has put forward the corresponding countermeasure in view of the above.

关 键 词：农户 消费意愿 有序PROBIT模型 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]