中国区域能源消费强度的影响因素分析  

The Analysis of Factors Affecting Regional Energy Consumption Intensity in China

作　　者：国涓[1,2] 王玲[2] 孙平[3] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学系统工程研究所,大连116024 [2]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,大连116025 [3]东北财经大学信息工程学院,大连116025

出　　处：《资源科学》2009年第2期205-213,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70673009);国家社会科学基金项目(编号:05BJY013)。

摘　　要：本文选取中国部分省际1997年～2005年数据,运用聚类分析方法将其划分成高增长高能耗(Ⅰ)、低增长高能耗(Ⅱ)、低增长低能耗(Ⅲ)和高增长低能耗(Ⅳ)4个区域,然后运用PanelData的协整分析与误差修正模型,对影响各区域能源消费强度的长、短期因素进行实证分析。结果表明:①长期来看,市场化程度的提高对降低能源消费强度有较大的影响,固定资产投资水平的提高将会使各区域能源消费强度增加,重工业比重和煤炭消费比重的增加虽然使各区域能源消费强度增加,但对各区域能源消费强度的影响差异较大;②短期而言,固定资产投资的短期波动将提高区域Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅳ的能源消费强度;虽然重工业比重的短期波动对Ⅱ、Ⅳ区域的能源消费强度有影响,但是不很明显;能源消费结构的短期变化将会引起Ⅱ、Ⅲ区域能源消费强度的变化;对于区域Ⅰ,加快其市场化进程的速度,优化资源配置,对快速降低该区域的能源消费强度具有一定的积极作用。最后,针对中国实际提出能源政策建议包括:制定有区别的区域节能目标和政策措施;发挥区域优势,加强区域合作,优化能源资源配置;积极发展清洁型能源;运用市场机制让能源流入效率高的地区。By utilizing cluster analysis method, this paper first divides the provinces, cities, and autonomous regions in China into four areas according to their different characteristics, which are high economic growth with high energy consumption, low economic growth with high energy consumption, low economic growth with low energy consumption, high economic growth with low energy consumption, and numbered them as Area No. 1, Area No. 2, Area No. 3 and Area No. 4 respectively. Recently developed tests for the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration, and panel-based error correction models are employed. The empirical results provide clear support of a long-term cointegration relationship after allowing for the heterogeneous area effect. Then, the long-term and short-term influential factors are analyzed empirically by employing panel data cointegration analysis （PDCA） and panel data error correction model （PECM） in the four areas, using data from 1997 to 2005. The evidence shows that in the long run, the upgrade of market degree can reduce energy consumption intensity and investment while higher level in fixed assets can increase energy consumption intensity in the four areas .The increase in the proportion of heavy industry and coal consumption will intensify energy consumption, but have little influence on the energy consumption intensity in the areas. In a short term, the fluctuation of investment in fixed assets would boost energy consumption intensity of the four areas. Although the short-term fluctuation in the proportion of heavy industry will influence the energy consumption intensity in Area No. 2 and Area No. 4, the influences are not obvious. The short-term changes in the structure of energy consumption would bring about the changes in energy consumption in Area No. 2 and Area No. 3. The speeding up of market process and optimal allocation of resources will certainly play a vital role in the reduction of its energy consumption intensity in Area No. 1. Lastly, this paper brings forward some s

关 键 词：能源 消费强度 市场化指数 面板协整 误差修正模型 中国 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F224