基于“荷兰病”效应的欠发达资源富集区“资源诅咒”现象识别--以贵州省毕节地区为例  

"Resource Curse"Phenomenon Recognition of URRR based on "Dutch Disease"Effect:A Case Study in Bijie Prefecture of Guizhou Province

作　　者：鲁金萍[1,2] 董德坤[3] 谷树忠[1] 常近时[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]青岛理工大学管理学院,青岛266033 [4]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100083

出　　处：《资源科学》2009年第2期271-277,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40871253)。

摘　　要：一般来说,丰富的自然资源对于一个国家或地区的发展具有重要的推动作用。然而,诸多事实表明,一些自然资源富集的国家和地区并没有因此而获得经济的持续增长,从表面上看,丰富的自然资源反而起到了一定的阻碍作用,这就是所谓的"资源诅咒"。本文在对欠发达资源富集区以及"资源诅咒"、"荷兰病"效应做了简要介绍的基础上,选取贵州省毕节地区作为欠发达资源富集区的典型实例,对该地区1996年～2005年采掘业和制造业产值及其从业人员数、科学事业费、科技三项费用等指标与经济增长的关系进行了初步的经验判断,结果表明该类地区具有陷入"资源诅咒"困境的可能性。然后在对经典"荷兰病"模型做了一定改进后,利用SPSS12.0统计分析软件结合毕节地区1996年～2005年资本投入数据,对其与经济增长率的关系做了多元线性回归分析,进一步验证了欠发达资源富集区终将遭遇"资源诅咒"困境的假设。Generally speaking, abundant natural resources will bring a country or region rapid and sustaining economic growth. However, some developing experience of foreign resources-based countries and domestic regions shows that rich natural resources, which are supposed to bring long-term economic growth, usually play an impedimental role in economic growth, and this is the so-called ＂resource curse＂. Based on a brief introduction of the definition and characteristics of underdeveloped resource-rich region（URRR）, ＂resource curse＂, ＂Dutch disease＂ and the relationship between them, the paper chooses Bijie prefecture of Guizhou province as a typical example, using charts to analyze several pairs of relationship： mining output and economic growth, manufacturing output and economic growth, scientific expenditure and economic growth and others to obtain a preliminary judgment that underdeveloped resource-rich regions are probably trapped in a ＂resource curse＂ dilemma. Having improved the ＂Dutch disease＂ model, we used SPSS12.0 statistical analysis software and capital input data of 1996-2005 to do multiple linear regression analysis on several relationships between those indicators （Fixed capital formation amount of Mining/fixed capital formation amount, Fixed capital formation amount of Manufacturing/fixed capital formation amount, Three items of sci-tech funds/total financial expenditure, Education operation expenses/total financial expenditure）and economic growth rate, further verify the assumption that underdeveloped resource-rich regions would probably be trapped in the ＂resource curse＂ dilemma. However, not every resource-based country or region has suffered the ＂resource curse＂. Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela and some other countries, which posess abundant natural resources, have been attempting lower developing speed and encountered the so-called ＂resource curse＂, while there are some special cases, such as Botswana, Norway and others, which still keep high developing speed. To a

关 键 词：欠发达资源富集区 “资源诅咒” “荷兰病”效应 “荷兰病”模型 毕节地区 可持续发展 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] F224