基于MFA与AHP的区域循环经济发展动态评价--以江苏省为例  

Regional Circular Economic Development Assessment based on MFA and AHP:A Case Study of Jiangsu Province,China

作　　者：黄和平[1,2] 毕军[1] 袁增伟[1] 张炳[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院,污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,南京210093 [2]江西财经大学资源与环境管理学院,南昌330032

出　　处：《资源科学》2009年第2期278-287,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(编号:06&ZD026);“十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目(编号:2006BAC02A15)。

摘　　要：循环经济实质上是一种生态经济,它要求运用生态学规律而不是机械论规律来指导人类社会的经济活动。生态效率与效益化原则是循环经济的根本原则,为此,对区域循环经济的评价及指标体系设计也必须贯彻这一根本原则。物质流分析(MFA)方法为资源、废弃物和环境管理提供了方法学上的决策支持工具,也为区域循环经济的评价与研究提供了新的思路。本文以江苏省1990年～2005年间循环经济发展状况为例,在阐述物质流分析方法及其指标的基础上,结合层次分析法和"3R"原则构建了适合于研究区的区域循环经济评价指标体系和权重体系,确立了区域循环经济评价指标分级标准,拟定了区域循环经济评判模型,并对其循环经济发展状况进行了分析和评价。结果表明:①江苏省减量化指标大部分时间处于II级水平,即中等循环级别,但其后期有波动下降的趋势;②江苏省资源化指标起点最低,但上升速度最快,到最后甚至达到I级水平,即可循环级别,且仍有上升的趋势;③江苏省无害化指标基本呈抛物线增长趋势,且在后半期也基本处于II级水平,即中等循环级别;④江苏省循环经济发展综合评价指数呈增长趋势,在本研究时间段的后半期达到II级水平,即中等循环状态。其下属的3个功能指标的评价结果表现为:前期:减量化>无害化>资源化,后期:资源化>无害化>减量化;⑤江苏省循环经济发展评价的各个具体指标的评价结果参差不齐,资源利用减量化、资源生产率、废弃物回收再利用和废物处置是其中最为薄弱的几个环节。最后,对循环经济评价指标体系存在的问题进行了分析,并对今后区域循环经济的发展予以了展望。本项研究为区域循环经济和可持续发展研究提供了新的思路。Circular economy （CE） is actually a sort of ecological economy because it requires applying the rules of ecology instead of mechanism to guide human economic activities. Maximization of efficiency and benefit in resource use is required by circular economy, which is very important to construct a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society and realize sustainable development. The assessment of regional circular economy and its indicators system must follow this basic principle. The leading method of material flow analysis （MFA） provides a methodologically effective decision-support tool for resource, waste and environmental management as well as a new research approach for regional circular economy assessment. Based on expounding MFA, its indicators and the ＂3R＂ （reduce, reuse and recycle） principle, analytic hierarchy process （AHP） was used to construct the assessment index system, weights system and the assessment index grading standards of regional circular economy , which were suitable for local ecological economic system. Jiangsu province of China was selected as studied area for us to draft the regional circular economic judgment model. The status of regional circular economy in Jiangsu was analyzed and evaluated based on a series of analysis. The results showed that： 1） the reduce index of circular economy in the studied area was in grade II for most of the period, that was in the middle-circular state, and reduced slightly in the later period; 2） the reuse index of circular economy was the lowest in the beginning but rose fastest and even reached grade I at last; 3） the recycle index of circular economy presented the parabola trend basically and was in grade II in the first half phase; 4） The comprehensive index of circular economy in the studied area presented a rising trend and reached grade II. The three sub-indicators are ranked as： reduction 〉 recycling 〉 reusing in the early stage and reusing 〉 recycling 〉 reduction in the later stage; 5） Based on th

关 键 词：循环经济(CE) 物质流分析(MFA) 层次分析法(AHP) 评价指标体系 江苏省 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F205F224