改进加权D-S证据理论在目标意图预测中的应用  

Application of Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory to Target Intention Prediction

作　　者：孙亮[1] 于雷[1] 黄文卿[2] 王凯[3] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学工程学院,陕西西安710038 [2]武汉军械士官学校,湖北武汉430023 [3]空军工程大学导弹学院,陕西三原713800

出　　处：《空军工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第1期17-22,共6页Journal of Air Force Engineering University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(60601016)

摘　　要：为了在预警机中准确对目标意图进行预测,以便我方及时合理的作出战术决策,采用D-S证据理论对目标意图进行预测。首先提取出影响目标意图预测的各个态势因素,然后分析每个因素的影响效果。在此基础上建立目标意图预测的数学模型,利用D-S合成法则将所有因素的影响进行综合,并计算出各个可能命题的概率赋值并给出相应决策。仿真实例表明:融合后的不确定概率有较大幅度的下降,得到了合理的目标意图预测结论,文中的方法可扩展为多个目标编队的意图预测。In order to accurately predict target intention prediction and help decision - making timely and reasonably, the D- S evidence theory is adopted in target intention prediction. First, the situation and then the influence of each factor is analyzed, based on which, the mathematic modeling factors are extracted, is created. With the D - S composition law, the influences of all factors are integrated, the probability evaluates of the likely propositions are calculated and the corresponding decision is made. Numerical examples of simulation show that the uncertain probability decreases greatly after fusion, the result of target intention prediction is reasonable, and the method can be extended to multi -formation.

关 键 词：D—S证据理论 目标意图预测 态势元素 

分 类 号：V271.4[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]