城市人口老龄化及危险因素改变对近20年糖尿病死亡率的影响  

Impact of Ageing and Related Risk Factors on Mortality Rate of Diabetes Mellitus in Urban Population

作　　者：顾海雁[1] 赵根明[2] 钱孝琳[1] 蔡任之[1] 李申生[1] 周雷[1] 王晓宇(校对) 

机构地区：[1]上海市徐汇区疾病预防控制中心,上海200031 [2]复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,上海200032 [3]不详

出　　处：《环境与职业医学》2009年第1期5-7,共3页Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine

基　　金：上海市疾病预防控制中心基金资助项目(编号:区2006-13)

摘　　要：[目的]定量评价因城市人口老龄化及危险因素改变对糖尿病死亡率的影响，为促进健康老龄化和制定糖尿病社区防治策略提供依据。[方法]分析上海市徐汇区1986～2005年糖尿病死亡率的变化，计算人口老龄化及危险因素改变对糖尿病死亡率变化的作用，并对危险因素归因构成比的时间趋势进行分析，拟合指数曲线。[结果]徐汇区1986～2005年65岁以上老龄人口构成增加了近1倍，糖尿病标准化死亡率女性高于男性，男女性别比1：1．65。20年间男性和女性标化死亡率均随时间呈上升趋势，男性r=0．9180，F=32．17，P=0．0013；女性r=0．8458，F=15．08，P=0．0081。20年间糖尿病粗死亡率上升了414．54％，归因于人口老龄化因素占68．49％，男性高于女性；归因于危险因素改变占31．51％。归因于老龄化效应的比例无论男性还是女性均有逐年上升趋势，相关系数男性r=0．9202，F=27．64，P=0．0033；女性r=0．9523，F=48．67，P=0．0009。[结论]人口老龄化对糖尿病死亡率影响作用大于危险因素改变的作用，男性尤其明显；与之相应的，归因于危险因素改变的影响所占构成比随时间变化有下降趋势。[ Objective ] The ageing and related risk factors which affected the mortality rate of diabetes mellitus in urban population were analyzed. According to the results, policies of aged people health promotion and diabetes prevention should be proved. [ Methods ] The changes of mortalities from 1986 to 2005 were analyzed and calculated to investigate the effects resulting from the ageing and related risk factors in Xuhui District, Shanghai. The trends of the risk factors effect proportions were estimated using exponential curves. [ Results ] Results showed that the proportion of people aged 65 upward in 2005 in Xuhui District approximately twice as high as that in 1986. The diabetes standardized mortality rate in female was higher than that in male with sex ratio of 1.65 ： 1. Results also showed an annual uptrend of standard mortality rate both in male and female population within the 20years, where in male r=0.9180, F=32.17, P=0.001 3, and in female r=0.845 8, F=15.08, P=0.008 1, modeling by liner regression model respectively. The mortalities increased 414.54% from 1986 to 2005, in which 68.49% were attributed to the ageing （ male＇s was higher than female＇s ）and 31.51% to risk factors, and also showed the yearly uptrend in proportion attributed to ageing in both sex, the correlation coefficient showed： male r=0.920 2, F=27.64, P=0.003 3, and female r=0.952 3, F=48.67, P=0.000 9, fitting by exponential model respectively. [ Conclusion ] The effects of ageing and related risk factors on mortality rate of diabetes mellitus should be different, and the ageing should be a factor more important than the related risk factors, especially in male. Meanwhile the effects proportion of risk factors on mortality rate showed to be a downtrend.

关 键 词：糖尿病 死亡率 危险因素 老龄化 城市人口 

分 类 号：R161.7[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]