城市间旅客运输需求预测模型研究  

Passenger Transport Demand Prediction Between Cities

作　　者：陈绍宽[1] 刘爽[1] 何宇强[1] 郭谨一[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室,北京100044

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2009年第1期38-43,56,共7页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70173014);铁道科技发展计划项目(2002F007)

摘　　要：本文以沪宁城市群为例,对城市间旅客运输需求总量、空间分布和运输方式的市场分担率进行研究和预测。文章着重分析影响城市间旅客需求的因素、旅客时间价值和出行广义费用的确定、空间分布模型参数标定和检验及各运输方式市场分担率预测等问题,并且认为高速度、高密度、大容量的铁路旅客运输是城市间(特别是大城市间)旅客运输市场中最有力的竞争者。TakingHu-Ningcity group as an example, the general demand, the spatial distribution and the market shares of passenger transport are studied and analyzed. This paper mainly discussed the factors that influence the passenger transport demand between these cities, that is, the confirmations of the passengers＇ time and the general cost of travel, the calibration and test of the parameters of the spatial distribution model, and the prediction of each transportation mode market share. This paper also proposed that the railway passenger transport with the characters of high speed, high density and huge capacity is one of powerful competitors for the passenger transportation market between cities （especially large cities）.

关 键 词：旅客运输需求 空间分布模型 时间价值 

分 类 号：U492.413[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]