松材线虫病在我国适生性分布的定量估计  

Quantification of Suitability Distribution Region of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in China

作　　者：冯益明[1] 张海军[2] 吕全[2] 梁军[2] 张星耀[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所,北京100091 [2]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所,北京100091

出　　处：《林业科学》2009年第2期65-71,共7页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑课题(2006BAD08A19102;2006BAD08A15);"948"项目(2006-4-22)资助

摘　　要：在前人对影响松材线虫以及媒介昆虫生长发育因素研究的基础上,应用模糊综合评判、地理信息系统、地统计学等理论与方法,综合分析影响松材线虫病定殖的4个基本条件(即寄主植物、松材线虫病原、媒介昆虫和环境条件),直观、定量和较为准确地获得松材线虫病在我国的潜在适生分布范围以及在云南省具体的潜在分布区域。研究可为我国松材线虫病检疫及其防治决策的制定提供科学依据。In the light of research achievements on the factors affecting growth and development of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and its vector insects, four basic conditions （i. e., plant autoeciousness, B. xylophilus pathogen, vector insects and environment） affecting the survival and spread of B. xylophilus were comprehensively analyzed by applying the theories and methods of synthetic assessment of fuzzy mathematics, geographical information system and geostatistics, and the relatively exactly potential distribution region of B. xylophilus in China and the more detail potential distribution region of B. xylophilus in Yunnan province were estimated. The above results would provide scientific bases for making policies in quarantining, preventing and controlling B. xylophilus.

关 键 词：松材线虫 风险分析 模糊综合评判 地统计学 地理信息系统 

分 类 号：S763[农业科学—森林保护学]