保险业对经济增长贡献的理论模型与实证检验  

Theoretical model and exponential analysis on insurance industry's contribution to economic growth

作　　者：赵尚梅[1] 李勇[2] 庞玉锋[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学,北京100083 [2]中国建设银行淄博张店支行,山东淄博255000 [3]山东大学,山东济南250100

出　　处：《保险研究》2009年第1期51-56,共6页Insurance Studies

基　　金：第四十批中国博士后科学基金资助

摘　　要：本文依据金融发展与经济增长关系理论,运用两部门模型,揭示了保险业发展对经济增长贡献的传导机制,证明了保险业发展不仅对经济增长做出贡献,而且对非保险部门还存在溢出效应。结论表明,保险业增速每提高1%,将带动实际GDP增长率提高1.2154%;同时,模型回归结果也证实了"保险业发展对经济其他部门存在溢出效应"的假设:保险业每增长1%,非保险部门增长0.0472%;初级阶段的保险业边际生产力低于其它部门的边际生产力。随着保险业的发展,边际生产力的提高,其外溢效应将进一步显现,保险业必将成为经济增长的重要支柱。Based on the theory about the relationship between financial development and economic growth and using the two-sector model, this paper revealed the transmission mechanism through which the financial development contributed to economic growth, and proved that the development of the insurance industry not only contributed to economic growth, but also had spillover effects on the non-insurance industry. It was concluded that each 1% growth of the insurance industry would dri.~e real GDP growth rate to increase 1. 2154%. At the same time, the recursive results also confirmed the hypothesis that ＂the growth of insurance has spillover effect on other sectors＂ ; each 1% growth of the insurance industry would drive non-insurance growth to increase 0. 0472 percent ; and at the initial stage, the marginal productivity of the insurance industry was lower than other sectors. With the development of the insurance industry, its marginal productivity would be enhanced, and the spillover effects would be more obvious. The insurance industry would have even more impact on economic growth.

关 键 词：保险业 两部门模型 外溢效应 经济增长 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险]