Predicting the start and maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24 using similar phases and a cycle grouping  

作　　者：Jia-Long Wang Wei-Guo Zong Gui-Ming Le Hai-Juan Zhao Yun-Qiu Tang Yang Zhang 

机构地区：[1]National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, China [2]National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

出　　处：《Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics》2009年第2期133-136,共4页中国天文和天体物理学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China;supported by NSFC through grants 10673017 and 10733020;National Basic Research Program of China through grant 2006CB806307.

摘　　要：We find that the solar cycles 9, 11, and 20 are similar to cycle 23 in their respective descending phases. Using this similarity and the observed data of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers （SMSNs） available for the descending phase of cycle 23, we make a date calibration for the average time sequence made of the three descending phases of the three cycles, and predict the start of March or April 2008 for cycle 24. For the three cycles, we also find a linear correlation of the length of the descending phase of a cycle with the difference between the maximum epoch of this cycle and that of its next cycle. Using this relationship along with the known relationship between the rise-time and the maximum amplitude of a slowly rising solar cycle, we predict the maximum SMSN of cycle 24 of 100.2±7.5 to appear during the period from May to October 2012.We find that the solar cycles 9, 11, and 20 are similar to cycle 23 in their respective descending phases. Using this similarity and the observed data of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers （SMSNs） available for the descending phase of cycle 23, we make a date calibration for the average time sequence made of the three descending phases of the three cycles, and predict the start of March or April 2008 for cycle 24. For the three cycles, we also find a linear correlation of the length of the descending phase of a cycle with the difference between the maximum epoch of this cycle and that of its next cycle. Using this relationship along with the known relationship between the rise-time and the maximum amplitude of a slowly rising solar cycle, we predict the maximum SMSN of cycle 24 of 100.2±7.5 to appear during the period from May to October 2012.

关 键 词：SUN cycle- Sun activity 

分 类 号：P182.41[天文地球—天文学] TN958.93[电子电信—信号与信息处理]