专家信息提取在装备可靠性评定中的应用  

Application of Expert Information Elicitation in Equipment Reliability Evaluation

作　　者：杨军[1] 于清津[1] 周健[1] 马溧梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军91245部队 [2]海军702厂

出　　处：《航空计算技术》2009年第1期52-55,共4页Aeronautical Computing Technique

摘　　要：专家信息是装备可靠性评定中验前信息的重要来源,将专家信息的提取流程划分为描述、收集、转化和融合四个步骤,并给出了前三步的具体步骤。以某装备可靠度为例,详细介绍了包括问卷设计、调查结果分析和专家信息向验前分布转化的专家信息提取过程,并提出了装备可靠性评定中专家信息提取应注意的问题。Expert information is an important source of prior information for equipment reliability test and evaluation. The expert information elicitation process can be divided into four steps：description, collection, transformation and fusion. The first three steps are discussed in detail. Using the reliability of a equipment as an example, the whole elicitation process is presented,including designing the questionnaire, analyzing the results and transforming the expert information into prior distribution. Some advices are also offered for expert information elicitation of equipment reliability.

关 键 词：可靠性 专家信息 提取 应用 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]