对石油峰值的几点认识  

Some Understandings on Peak Oil Theory

作　　者：王月[1] 冯连勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学,北京102249

出　　处：《天然气技术》2009年第1期4-6,21,共4页NATURAL GAS TECHNOLOGY

摘　　要：石油峰值(Peak Oil)是指某一区域(全球、地区、国家、油区等)石油产量的最大值及其来临的时间。中国经济的可持续发展需要大量的能源作保障,然而资源的有限性将成为其最大的瓶颈,基于此提出了对石油峰值问题的几点认识:石油峰值是客观存在的;世界石油峰值必然会来临,只是在到来的具体时间问题上存在分歧;科技进步可以延缓但不能改变石油峰值的到来;目前石油替代品产量对于巨大的能源缺口仍是杯水车薪;石油峰值的到来必然对石油产业链造成一定程度的负面影响;应正视石油峰值并加大研究力度。Peak oil refers to the notion that in a certain range(all around the world,a region,a country or an oil area etc.),at some point in the future the oil production will reach a peak.In China,a large amount of energy is required to guarantee sustainable development of economy.Just because of this,limited resource in China will become the bottle neck to restrict domestic economy development.Peak oil exists objectively.World peak oil will occur inevitably even though there' re dispute about the exact time when it occurs.Science and technology progress can delay however cannot stop the coming of peak oil.Other ideas on peak oil including that present production of petroleum substitutes cannot offset the heavily shortage of energy supply,and peak oil will inevitably harm petroleum industry are also discussed.

关 键 词：石油峰值 石油产量 石油贸易 

分 类 号：F407.22[经济管理—产业经济]