南京市地铁1号线开通初期客流预测  

Nanjing Subway Line 1 Passenger Forecasting for the Opening Period

作　　者：何宁[1] 马晓甦[2] 王国晓[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京市交通规划研究所有限责任公司,江苏南京210008 [2]香港科技大学

出　　处：《城市交通》2009年第1期36-44,共9页Urban Transport of China

摘　　要：为了对南京市地铁1号线开通初期进行精准的客流预测,以规划地铁1号线沿线车站1km半径范围内的51个交通小区为研究重点,进行了5类个人出行调查,利用四阶段法建立交通模型进行预测分析。在交通方式预测阶段,利用交通意向调查数据建立了轨道交通转移率模型,得到轨道交通OD预测结果。最后,将预测结果与实际客流进行比较,说明客流预测精度较好,验证了所使用的出行调查和模型方法的合理和有效性。In order to obtain accurate volumes forecasting for initial operation phase of subway line 1 in Nanjing, this paper, focusing on 51 traffic zones within 2 kilometers around rail stations along the proposed line, and based on a personal travel survey of 5 classifications, establishes a 4step model to forecast travel demands. During modesplit, a transit transfer submodel is developed based on SP survey data, through which the transit OD forecast ing results are obtained. Finally, a comparison between model outputs and existing volume counts is conducted to verify the accuracy, as well as the rationality and efficiency of the survey methods and the models used in this project.

关 键 词：地铁1号线 客流预测 南京市 交通模型 轨道交通 预测分析 四阶段法 交通方式 

分 类 号：U231.96[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] U293.13