基于变点分析的软件可靠性多模型混合研究  

A Software Reliability Mixture Model Based on Change-point

作　　者：屈斐[1] 张志华[2] 王树宗[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学兵器新技术应用研究所,湖北武汉430033 [2]海军工程大学数学系,湖北武汉430033

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2009年第2期325-328,共4页Computer Simulation

摘　　要：针对单个模型因不适应软件工程项目的细微变化而使预测失实的问题,研究了软件可靠性多模型混合问题。建立了基于变点的软件可靠性混合模型;利用最小二乘法研究了软件可靠性模型的变点估计,给出了变点估计的计算方法;最后,对所提出基于变点的软件可靠性混合模型进行数值模拟,模拟结果表明基于变点的软件可靠性混合模型相对于传统的单模型,具有更好的稳健性及预测有效性,能够避免软件可靠性模型不可靠而难以运用于工程实际的问题。In view of the problem that single model, which doesn＇t adapt to a tiny diversity of software project, will make the forecast inconsistent with the fact, this paper studies software reliability mixture model. It proposes a software reliability mixture model based on change -point, analyses and gives a LSM calculating method for change - point estimation. Finally, the model based on change - point is simulated according to a set of data. The result of simulation indicates that the mixture model based on change - point in this paper is better than any of its component models and can overcome the problem that software reliability model isn＇t reliable enough to be applied to dealing with practical project.

关 键 词：软件可靠性 模型混合 变点分析 最小二乘法 可靠性分析 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]