对外贸易与产业规模增长的灰色关联分析——以广西为例  

A Grey Relevance Analysis on External Trade and Industry Scale Increasing——Example Research of Guangxi Province

作　　者：庄晋财[1] 徐志耀[1] 黄凡 

机构地区：[1]广西大学商学院 [2]广西移动南方公司

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2008年第11期70-73,共4页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:04XJY003)<西部地区承接东部产业转移中产业链整合政策转型研究>的成果。

摘　　要：对外贸易与经济增长的关系问题长期以来备受经济学界的高度关注，回顾现有文献，大体上可以总结出三种观点①：一种是经济学家罗伯特逊（D．H．Robertson）和R·纳克斯建立的R-N理论的观点，即认为对外贸易是经济“增长的发动机”（theengineofgrowth），国际贸易不仅能带来直接的或静态的利益，而且能带来间接的或动态的利益；To exactly recognize the economic effect of external trade, we have not only to analyze its contribution on national economy but also to analyze its relationship with national economy. Basing on the Equal Dimension Gray Filling Model, this thesis forecasts the total-value of import and export, the GDP of primary industry, secondary industry and third industry, the total-production-value of agriculture, forestry, husbandry, fishery, heavy industry and light industry; and discovers a relevance between the total-value of imports, exports and other index. This thesis reveals the international trade effect of Guangxi economy development, and this result will benefit Guangxi to make out an appropriate external trade development stratagem.

关 键 词：对外贸易 灰色关联分析 规模增长 广西 产业 经济学界 关系问题 经济增长 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] N94[经济管理—产业经济]