基于贝叶斯网络的多状态系统可靠性建模与评估  

Multi-state System Reliability Modeling and Assessment Based on Bayesian Networks

作　　者：尹晓伟[1] 钱文学[2] 谢里阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳工程学院机械工程系,沈阳110136 [2]东北大学机械工程与自动化学院,沈阳110004

出　　处：《机械工程学报》2009年第2期206-212,共7页Journal of Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划;2006AA04Z408);国家自然科学基金(50775030);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20070145083)资助项目

摘　　要：利用贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network,BN)的不确定性推理和图形化表达的优势,提出一种基于BN的多状态系统可靠性建模与评估的新方法,确定BN的结点及系统各元件的多个状态,并给出各状态的概率,进而用概率分布表(Conditional probability distributing,CPD)描述元件各状态之间的关系来表达关联结点的状态,建立多状态系统BN模型。该模型表达直观,能够清晰地表示系统和元件的多种状态以及状态概率,并能够根据元件多种状态概率直接计算系统可靠度,对多状态系统可靠性进行定性分析和定量评估。实例分析表明了应用BN方法进行多状态系统可靠性评估的有效性。By using the advantages of uncertainty reasoning and figurative expression of Bayesian network, a new method of modeling and assessment of multi-state system reliability based on BN is proposed to determine the nodes of BN and the multiple states of elements of system, and to give the probability of each state and then utilizing conditional probability distributing （CPD） to describe the relationship among the element states, so as to express the states of correlated nodes and build a BN model of multi-state system. The model can clearly express the multiple states of system and elements and the state probability, and also can directly calculate the system reliability on the basis of multiple state probabilities of elements, thereby carrying out qualitative analysis and quantitative assessment of multi-state system reliability. Analysis of practical examples proves the effectiveness of assessment of multi-state system reliability by using BN method.

关 键 词：系统可靠性 多状态 贝叶斯网络 建模 评估 

分 类 号：TH112[机械工程—机械设计及理论] V232.3[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]