石家庄温度预报检验及影响因子分析  

Temperature forecast verification and its controls in Shijiazhuang,Hebei province

作　　者：李国翠[1] 连志鸾[1] 赵彦厂[1] 牛朝阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]石家庄市气象局,河北石家庄050081

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2009年第1期15-18,共4页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：河北省气象局项目"短期;短时天气分县预报技术研究(2004KF12)";"07ky14"项目共同资助

摘　　要：对石家庄2004年11月—2008年3月的温度预报进行了质量检验。结果表明:石家庄最低气温和最高气温的平均绝对误差均低于2℃,均方根误差低于3℃,最低气温预报准确率明显优于最高气温。进而对温度预报误差较大的样本出现原因进行了逐日客观分析,并通过自然正交函数分解(EOF)法,对不同情形下石家庄及周边县站极端最高、最低气温EOF分解特征向量场的变化特征对比,推断出影响气温预报偏差的主要因子大致相同,焚风是导致温度预报出现较大误差的重要原因。Temperature forecast from November 2004 to March 2008 in Shijiazhuang was verified. The results show that mean absolute errors of the maximum and the minimum temperatures are lower than 2℃, and the root mean square errors are lower than 3 ℃. The forecast accuracy of the minimum temperature is higher than that of the maximum. Reasons forming the sampling of the large error were analyzed by the method of daily objective analysis. Variations of empirical orthogonal function （EOF） vector fields of the minimum and the maximum air temperatures in Shijiazhuang and its surrounding regions were compared by EOF method. At last, it concludes that the main factors influencing the forecast accuracy of air temperature are approximately the same. Foehn is the most important factor causing the error of air temperature forecast.

关 键 词：温度预报 质量检验 影响因子 EOF分解 焚风 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]