基于蒙特卡罗模拟法的输电网灵活规划  

Monte Carlo Simulation Based Flexible Planning of Power Transmission Network

作　　者：麻常辉 梁军[2] 杨永军 郭方正 刘亚丽[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东电力科学研究院,山东省济南市250002 [2]山东大学电气工程学院,山东省济南市250061

出　　处：《电网技术》2009年第4期99-102,共4页Power System Technology

摘　　要：讨论了电力市场环境下的不确定因素,提出输电规划风险因子的概念,基于风险因子建立了输电网灵活规划模型,然后基于蒙特卡罗仿真和遗传算法对该模型进行寻优求解。该方法允许规划者指定输电规划风险因子阈值,从而使输电网规划方案在未来的不确定性环境下具有更好的适应性。算例结果表明了该方法的可行性和有效性。After the analysis on uncertain factors in electricity market environment, a concept of risk factor in transmission planning is proposed. Based on the proposed risk factor, a flexible transmission planning model is built; then by use of Monte Carlo simulation and genetic algorithm （GA）, the built model is optimized and solved. Monte Carlo simulation method allows the planner specifying the threshold of risk factor for transmission planning, thus it makes the transmission planning scheme possessing better adaptability in future uncertain environment. Results of calculation examples show that the proposed method is feasible and effective.

关 键 词：输电网规划 电力市场 遗传算法 蒙特卡罗仿真 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]