中国税收收入与国内生产总值之间的经验测度——基于VAR模型的经济计量分析(1978-2007)  

An Empirical Study on the Relation between Tax Income and GDP in China from 1978 to 2007——Econometric Analysis Based on VAR Model

作　　者：刘宏杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财政与贸易经济研究所,北京100836

出　　处：《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2009年第1期72-78,共7页Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：文章分析了1978-2007年中国税收收入和国内总产值的变化趋势,运用VAR模型对中国税收收入与经济增长之间的关系进行了经验测度。结论表明:1978-2007年,税收收入占比冲击对GDP增长率表现为正向影响,冲击后的第4年对GDP增长率的正向影响达到最大值,为0.0948;通过方差分解可以看出,中国税收收入占比对经济增长率波动的贡献份额较小。显然,中国的宏观税负水平是积极的、有效的,税负水平的适度调整不会造成经济的波动。This paper analyzes the changes of tax income and economic growth from 1978 to 2007 and makes an empirical test on the relation between tax income and economic growth. The results suggests that the impulse of the percentage of tax income on GDP has a positive effect on the growth rate of GDP and the effect reaches the maximum value of 0. 0948 in the forth year after the impulse. Through the variance decomposition, the percentage of tax income on GDP makes little contribution to the fluctuation of economic growth rate. Obviously, tax level in China is positive and effective and an appropriate adjustment of tax level can＇t result in economic fluctuation.

关 键 词：税收收入 经济增长 VAR模型 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]