独生子女大规模进入婚育年龄对我国人口发展的影响  

The Effect of Large Scale Only-Children Entering the Age of Marriage on China’s Population Development

作　　者：丁仁船[1] 吴瑞君[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑工业学院法政系,合肥230022 [2]华东师范大学人口所,上海600021

出　　处：《西北人口》2009年第2期15-17,21,共4页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金"中国城镇第一代独生子女的教育与婚姻状况研究"(批准号:06BRK006)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：大规模的独生子女进入婚育期以及我国差异化的人口控制政策,必然使政策生育率上升。其后果主要表现为:一、理论上每年出生人数增加约160万,使我国人口峰值提高了约4800万;二、弱化我国人口政策的区域差异所导致的人口素质"逆淘汰",加快人口素质的提高,同时长期偏高的出生性别比也将得到一定程度的缓和;三、城镇将出现大量的"四二一"家庭,而且家庭空巢阶段也将提前到来,空巢家庭比例快速上升。Because of a number of only-children getting married and our speeial population policy, it is that the fertility rate will rise. The results are： First, the annual births will increase by 1.6 million in theory, and the peak of population will inerease by 48 million;Seeond, it is useful to improve of population,and the gender ratio at birth will drop;Third,a large number of family with four elders ,two adults and only child will come, and great many of empty-nest family will emerge ahead of time.

关 键 词：独生子女 政策生育率 人口发展 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]