黄河天然径流量变化趋势及其影响分析  

TRENDS OF ANNUAL NATURAL RUNOFF IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN

作　　者：李春晖[1,2] 郑小康[1] 杨志峰[1] 庞爱萍[1] 沈楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院 [2]水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所 [4]黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第1期80-85,共6页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50709002);教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金资助项目

摘　　要：选择黄河流域8个水文站点,采用mann-kendall方法,研究其1951—1998年的变化趋势,并确定突变点及其起始位置.结果表明:这些站点存在相同的趋势.年天然径流量除了兰州、河口镇和龙门外,都有显著的下降趋势,突变点在90年代的早期或中期,但是下降的趋势点不同.研究发现,降水存在类似的趋势,是径流量减少的主要原因.同时,人类活动也是径流量减少的重要原因.发展节水灌溉和实施南水北调是缓解水资源短缺的重要途径,但水资源供需矛盾在短期内依然存在.Series of annual natural runoff recorded at 8 hydrological stations in the Yellow River basin （YRB）, distributed at the main channel and the two most sub-basin, i.e. Weihe basin and Fenhe basin, from 1951 to 1998, are studied. The trends and their beginning points （or abrupt changes） of these series are detected with mann-kendall test （M-K test） and its progressive application according to Sneyers and Goossens. The results show that there are similar trends for different stations. The annual natural runoff series for stations other than Lanzhou, Hekouzhen and Longmen, have a downward tendency, with beginning points of the trend or abrupt changes occurring in the early or mid 1990s. However, their initial years of decrease are different. The decreasing trend of runoff has led to drying-up in lower reaches of the YRB, water resources scarcity crisis and deterioration of the ecosystem. The contributing factors for such trends have been analyzed. The trends of precipitation in the corresponding regions are similar to those of annual natural runoff. It is an important aspect for runoff decrease. In addition, human activities has changed the hydrological cycle and led to runoff reduction to a certain degree. Finally, two countermeasures for the runoff decrease are put forward. One is to develop water saving in irrigation region, and the other is to plan South-to-North water transfer projects for the YRB. However, the conflict between supply and demand will still exist for some time because of the water scarcity in the future.

关 键 词：天然径流量 趋势分析 mann-kendall方法 黄河流域 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]