RAINS-ASIA模型及其对北京市SO_2排放量和控制成本的预测  

RAINS-ASIA model and its application to predicting SO_2 emission quantity as well as the control cost in Beijing

作　　者：马淑平[1] 程水源[1] 郭秀锐[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学环境科学与能源工程学院,北京100124

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2009年第1期66-70,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家"863"计划项目(2006AA06A307)

摘　　要：借鉴RAINS模型的分析方法和结构思想,建立了预测SO_2排放-控制成本的框架模型。利用RAINS-ASIA模型并结合预测SO_2排放-控制成本的方法对北京市1990、1995、2000、2005、2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年不同设计情景下的SO_2排放量和控制成本进行预测。结果表明:1)北京市SO_2的面源排放量大于点源排放量;2)北京市SO_2点源已得到很大程度消减,面源消减量较点源消减量还存在很大潜力,因此,北京市应将面源作为SO_2污染的重点消减目标,并进一步提出消减排放量的控制方案;3)对于电厂和集中供热部门来说,当前控制战略的减排效果比湿法烟气脱硫控制的减排效果差,同时其减排成本和湿法烟气脱硫控制战略相差很少,因此,对于点源的控制应该优先实施湿法烟气脱硫减排措施。This paper intends to introduce the analysis method and the structure frame of RAINS model for reference and calculate the SO2 emission-control cost mode so as to collect economic and technical indicators over the control technology in Beijing. The so-called RAINS model is nothing but a method for systematically analyzing SO2 control strategy. In this paper, we have analyzed four scenario of SO2 in Beijing. The modeling system and the RAINS-ASIA mode are used to predict the SO2 emission quantity and determine the control cost under four scenario in 1990,1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 in Beijing. And as a result of SO2 total emission quantity estimation, we have obtained the SO2 area source emission quantity and total SO2 area source control cost. And, in the end, we have found the general trend of the SO2 emission and control cost under different scenario in the capital area. The result of our work shows： （ 1 ） The SO2 emission quantity of area source in Beijing is more than that of point sources; （2） The point sources has been reduced to a great extent in Beijing. The area sources can be subtracted large more compared with the point sources. So the area sources should be put into the first place to be subtracted in Beijing and puts forward the further control scheme of subduing its emission quantity ; （3） The wet flue gas desulphurization is more effective than the current strategy to the power plant and central heating department, meanwhile the control cost is very near. So it suggests that the wet flue gas desulfurization is the priority selection to subtract SO2 emission quantity.

关 键 词：环境科学 RAINS-ASIA模型 情景设计 SO2排放量 控制成本 北京 

分 类 号：Q93[生物学—微生物学]