辽宁省城市生态安全评价方法与预测模型研究  

Assessment and prediction model of urban ecological security in Liaoning

作　　者：韩天放[1] 董志贵[2] 胡筱敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学资源与土木工程学院,沈阳110004 [2]沈阳东方钛业有限公司,沈阳110004

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2009年第1期74-77,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：通过层次分析法确定辽宁省13个城市1995—2005年城市环境状态、环境压力和人文环境响应3个子系统的23个指标的权重,计算13个城市不同年份的城市生态安全指数值,通过逐步回归法构建不同显著水平的3个预测模型,并验证2005年的实证数据。结果表明,大连、葫芦岛和营口不同年份的生态安全指数都较高,基本处于生态安全和理想安全水平;朝阳与锦州的城市生态安全指数值最低。3个预测模型的评价结果非常相似,并与PSR模型评价结果的变化趋势相似,可见通过3个预测模型得到的城市生态安全结果可靠。The purpose of this paper is to present our innovated mod- el for assessing and pre-evaluating the urban ecological security in Liaoning on the basis of the statistic resources and environmental indexes provided by the 13 cities in the period from 1995 to 2005 by way of multiple regression. This paper selected 23 indexes and demonstrated the present state of subsystems of the urban environmental pressure, the urban environmental status and responses to the social environment. The statistic and calculation methods of each security index and its weight with urban ecosystems are derived from the analytic hierarchy process. To be exact, three pre-evaluation models were introduced. Assessment results gained from the highly integrated indexes of such cities as Dalian, Huludao and Yingkou demonstrate that the three cities enjoy better urban ecological security indexes while cities like Chaoyang and Jinzhou keep the lowest indexes. The assessment results gained with the PSR model for the 13 cities in 2005 have actually provided very much approximate estimation, which proves that the three models are reliable in simulating and pre-estimating urban ecological security. Technically speaking, the ecological security indexes of the different cities are different. Or, more specifically, different levels of regression models of urban ecological security turn to accord with the PSR model resulted in different evaluations. To sum up all the above study results, it can be said that PSR model proves suitable for future urban eco-environment system estimation by making up for the widening gaps between the higher level and lower level of ecological security. Thus, it can also be concluded that by choosing the appropriate indexes and establishing index system for the pre-estimation, it is possible to forecast the environmental trends of our cities effectively.

关 键 词：环境生态学 城市生态安全 生态安全指数 生态安全评价与预测模型 辽宁省 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]