储层地质建模参数不确定性研究方法探讨  

A discussion on the method to study uncertainty of geologic modeling parameters

作　　者：孙立春[1] 高博禹[1] 李敬功[1] 

机构地区：[1]中海石油研究中心

出　　处：《中国海上油气》2009年第1期35-38,共4页China Offshore Oil and Gas

摘　　要：探讨了储层地质建模参数不确定性研究方法。首先应用随机地质建模技术,考虑多参数同步变化,根据各参数性质及模拟变量的分布规律,生成多个等概率的储层地质模型,开展储层模型不确定性及地质储量分布概率分析;其次仅考虑某一因素变化,在设定其它参数为常值的情况下,进行单一因素敏感性分析,确定单一因素的影响权重。应用此方法进行储层地质建模参数敏感性、地质模式不确定性及地质储量分布的定量化研究,从而为油气田开发决策提供依据。A method to study uncertainty of geologic modeling parameters is discussed in this paper. At first, multiple equiprobabilty geologic models of reservoirs are generated, by using the techniques of stochastic geologic modeling, considering the simultaneous changes of multiple parameters and following the distribution regularity of each parameter and each modeled variable, and the un certainty of reservoir models and the distribution of in place reserves are probabilistically analyzed. Then only one given factor is considered, and its sensitivity is analyzed by assuming that other parameters are all constant, in order to determine the influence weight of this single factor. This method can be used to study quantitatively the sensitivity of geologic reservoir modeling parameters, the un certainty of geologic models and the distribution of in-place reserves, providing guidance for decision making of oil and gas field development.

关 键 词：储层 地质建模 参数 不确定性 研究方法 

分 类 号：TE319[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程] P618.130.2[天文地球—矿床学]