不确定性对北部湾二长棘鲷渔业资源评估影响的模拟研究  

A Simulation Study of Impacts of Uncertainty on the Assessment of the Crimson Sea Bream (Paragyrops edita) Fishery in Beibu Gulf

作　　者：朱立新[1,2] 李丽芳[1] 梁振林[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学威海分校海洋学院,威海264209 [2]广东海洋大学水产学院,湛江524025

出　　处：《广东海洋大学学报》2009年第1期36-43,共8页Journal of Guangdong Ocean University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(30771653)

摘　　要：利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法研究了生物学参考点F0.1、Fmax和当前捕捞死亡系数(current fishing mortality rate,Fcur)估计中的不确定性对北部湾二长棘鲷渔业资源评估的影响。结果表明:二长棘鲷渔业资源状态评估受到F0.1、Fmax、Fcur估计中的不确定性和管理者选取的决策置信水平的影响,二长棘鲷渔业被确定为过度捕捞的概率随着F0.1、Fmax、Fcur估计中不确定性和置信水平的增加而下降;F0.1和Fmax估计中的不确定性主要由生长参数的不确定性引起,自然死亡系数的不确定性对F0.1和Fmax估计中的不确定性的影响是有一定限度的。相比Fmax,将F0.1作为二长棘鲷渔业的管理目标更为合适。A Monte Carlo simulation approach was employed to investigate the impacts of uncertainties on the status assessment Of the crimson sea bream （Paragyrops edita） fishery in the Beibu Gulf with estimated biological reference points, F0.1 and Fmax, and estimated current fishing mortality rate （Fcur）. The results showed that the evaluation of the current fishery resources was influenced by uncertainties in estimated F0.1, Fmax and Four, and by decisions of the managers with different confidence levels. The probability of being overfished reduces with the increase of uncertainties in F0.1, Fmax and Fcur, and decision confidence levels. Uncertainties in growth related parameters are the main contributors to the estimated uncertainties for F0.1and Fmax for the crimson sea bream fishery. The uncertainty of natural morality has limited influence on the estimated uncertainties of F0.1and Fmax. In contrast to Fmax, F0.1 is more appropriate management target for the crimson sea bream fishery.

关 键 词：不确定性 资源评估 生物学参考点 蒙特卡罗模拟 二长棘鲷 北部湾 

分 类 号：S931.1[农业科学—渔业资源]