病险水库运行风险的复合不确定性分析  

Analysis on complex uncertainty for the run risk of ill reservoir

作　　者：胡德秀[1] 杨杰[1,2] 周孝德[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048 [2]水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第3期230-234,共5页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50779051);水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金项目(2007B037);陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(07JK354);西安理工大学科学研究基金项目(106-210509)

摘　　要：【目的】针对病险水库运行风险的量化问题,进行灰色-随机风险计算的复合不确定性分析方法研究。【方法】将病险水库运行中的复杂不确定性影响关系,简化处理为仅由灰色和随机不确定性构成,由此建立了病险水库运行风险的灰色-随机风险率计算方法,并通过对功能函数的确定,将灰色-随机风险概率转换成一般随机风险率,最后应用改进一次二阶矩法,实现对病险水库运行风险的复合不确定性分析与计算。【结果】所求得的风险值为一灰色区间,客观地反映了水库运行风险的不确定性。【结论】工程实例表明,所提出的复合不确定性分析,能较好地评价病险水库的运行风险。[Objective] Aimed at the quantitative analysis for the run risk of ill reservoir,a complex un- certainty analysis method of grey-stochastic risk evaluation was put forward. [Method] By simplifying the complicated uncertainty relationships in the run of ill reservoir to a grey-stochastic complex uncertainty,the evaluation method of grey-stochastic risk probability was set up for ill reservoir risk analysis. According to ascertaining the functional function, the grey-stochastic risk probability was transformed into commonly stochastic risk probability. Finally, the amended first-order second-moment method was utilized to calculate the run risk of ill reservoir. [Result] The risk probability obtained by the grey-stochastic risk evaluation fell in a grey space,which satisfactorily reflected the uncertainty of reservoir run risk. [Conclusion] Project instance analysis shows that the complex uncertainty analysis method proposed can satisfactorily evaluate the run risk of ill reservoir.

关 键 词：病险水库 运行风险 复合不确定性 灰色-随机风险概率 

分 类 号：TV698.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]