我国自然失业率的测量与解析——基于1978-2007年数据  

The Measuring and Analyzing of NAIRU in China:Based on the Data of 1978-2007

作　　者：万海远[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南民族大学经济学院,云南昆明650031

出　　处：《当代财经》2009年第3期5-12,共8页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2006BJL004);江西省教育厅高等学校人文社会科学课题(Jj0612)

摘　　要：通过分析自然失业率的三种数理模型,采用比较静态分析与计量统计检验的方法,发现纳入工资刚性的凯恩斯主义NAIRU模型更符合我国实际。利用这个模型,在放宽自然失业率恒定不变和阶段性变化假设的基础上,测量了1978-2007年我国各年的自然失业率。1978年以来,我国自然失业率总体呈现上升趋势,到2003年为一个极大点;2003-2007年自然失业率开始下降,分别为9.25%、9.09%、13.1%、10.9%、7.15%。另外,我国平均的名义工资刚性度和实际工资刚性度分别为0.873、0.221。在我国,技术进步对自然失业率是具有长期效应而不是短期效应。技术进步倾向于减少自然失业率,而这与Pissarides等人在美国的研究结论是相反的。Through analyzing three mathematical models of NAIRU with the methods of the comparative static analysis and the measurement and statistics test, this paper believes that the Keynesian NAIRU model integrated with wage rigidity is more suitable to the reality of China. On the basis of the assumption of relaxing constant NAIRU and changes in phases, this model is used to measure the yearly NAIRU in China from 1978 to 2007. Since 1978, the NAIRU has been on the increase on the whole, with the year of 2003 as a maximal point. And from year 2003 to 2007, the NAIRU started to drop, being 9.25%, 9.09%, 13.1%, 10.9%, 7.15% respectively. In addition, the average nominal and actual wage rigidities in China were found to be 0.873 and 0.221. It is proved that in China the advancement of technology has the long-term effect on the NAIRU, in stead of the short-term effect. The advancement of technology tends to reduce NAIRU, which is contrary to the conclusions of the researches made by Pissarardes and other researchers in USA.

关 键 词：自然失业率 通货膨胀失业率 菲利普斯曲线 工资刚性 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]