区域经济收入分布的动态演进分析——以浙江省为例  

Analysis of the Dynamic Evolution of Income Distribution of Regional Economy:A Case of Zhejiang Province

作　　者：董亚娟[1] 孙敬水[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学统计学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]浙江工商大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《当代财经》2009年第3期25-30,共6页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：浙江省哲社科学基金项目(07CGLJ013YBX);浙江省社科联重点项目(07Z11);浙江省教育厅项目(1020KZ207176)

摘　　要：基于浙江省区域经济人均收入数据,采用核密度函数和马尔科夫分析法,对区域经济收入分布的动态演进过程进行了分析。结果表明,浙江区域人均收入分布特征有别于全国或省区层面上的收入分布特征:浙江区域收入分布整体上呈现单峰、偏态的分布形态,且区域间收入差异呈现扩大的趋势。区域间的状态转移矩阵显示,收入状态的流动性较低,仅在相邻的状态之间转移,难以实现状态间跨越式转移。在经济的长期收入均衡状态中,收入分布分散于四种类型状态空间,其中,不发达地区将占主要比重,不会出现区域经济趋同现象,收入差距会有进一步扩大的趋势。Based on the data of per capita income of regional economy in Zhejiang Province and with the nuclear density function and Markov analytical method, this paper analyses the dynamic evolution of income distribution of regional economy. The results show that the characteristics of the per capita income distribution in Zhejiang region are different from that of the whole country or other provinces. On the whole, in Zhejiang region, the income distribution shows a single peak and skew pattern, and the regional income differences have a widening trend. The inter-regional transfer matrix shows that the fluidity of the income state is relatively low, only moving between the neighboring states, so it is difficult to make great strides in the inter-state transfers. In the long-term equilibrium income state of economy, the income distribution is scattered in four types of state, of which the under developing regions account for the major share. It isnot likely to find the phenomenon of regional economic convergence. There is a tendency of further widening income difference.

关 键 词：区域经济 人均收入分布 核密度函数 单峰分布 平稳分布 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]