基于Bayes-Markov过程的年径流丰枯变化特性分析  

Research on the Characteristics of the High and Low Runoff Basing Bayes-Markov Process

作　　者：邓杰群[1] 周秀平[1] 黄伟军[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西水利电力职业技术学院,南宁530023

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2009年第3期4-6,9,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：广西壮族自治区教育厅(RC2007052);桂科攻(0697008)项目资助

摘　　要：首先根据概率中的Bayes分析确定年径流的状态,然后采用Markov分析方法,从时间序列的内部为出发点,以转移概率和极限概率来描述Markov状态转移的静态统计量,对漓江流域桂林站年径流序列进行多种状态统计分析,不仅可以定量说明其径流丰或枯状态之间的相互转化状况,而且可以揭示不同状态之间的转移概率。In this paper, the annual runoff is first determined by the Bayes theory then the Markov process method is used to analyze the state of runoff in the Guilin Station in the Lijiang watershed by using transfer probability and limit probability to describe the static state. Not only can the transfer law between high and low runoff be explained , but also the transfer probability ean he revealed.

关 键 词：BAYES分析 MARKOV过程 转移概率 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]