稻纵卷叶螟发生量与气象因子关系的研究  

Study on the Relationship between Occurrence Quantity of Medinalis and Meteorological Factors

作　　者：袁昌洪[1] 鞠红霞[1] 赵蓓[1] 卞正奎 景利民 刘方[1] 

机构地区：[1]泰州市气象局,江苏泰州225300 [2]泰州市农业局,江苏泰州225300

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2009年第6期2601-2603,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：泰州市政府科学技术基金(TL0604);江苏省气象局科技项目(200621);泰州市气象局科技项目(200602)

摘　　要：[目的]研究稻纵卷叶螟发生量与气象因子的关系,建立预报模式,为稻纵卷叶螟的防治提供理论依据。[方法]利用江苏泰州地区1987-2006年气象资料和稻纵卷叶螟发生资料,选取气象因子,利用SPSS软件,分析影响稻纵卷叶螟发生程度的主要气象因子,采用逐步回归的方法建立稻纵卷叶螟发生程度的气象预报方程。[结果]1月中旬-2月上旬的日照时数与第四（2）代稻纵卷叶螟的大发生有较明显的相关,而2、3月的平均气温与第五（3）代稻纵卷叶螟的大发生有较好的相关。[结论]预报显示,对第四（2）代和第五（3）代稻纵卷叶螟发生量的预报准确率较高,分别达95%和75%;如果将数据做四舍五入处理,准确率分别为100%和95%。[ Objective ] The aim was to study the relationship between occurrence quantity of medinalis and meteorological factors and establish prediction model, the study provided theoretical basis for control of medinalis. [ Method] Meteorological data and medinalis occurrence data of 1987 -2006 in Taizhou region were used, meteorological factors were selected and the main meteorological factors affecting occurrence degree of medinalis were analyzed by SPSS software, meteorological prediction equation were established using stepwise regression method. [ Result] The study showed that sunshine hours in mid-January to early February and four （2） medinalis outbreak had a more obvious correlation, average temperature in February and March and five （3） medinalis had a good correlation. [ Conclusion ] Forecast showed that occurrence of the four （2） and five （3） medinalis had higher forecast accuracy rate, respectively were 95 % and 75% ; the data were round off treated, accuracy rate were 100% and 95%

关 键 词：稻纵卷叶螟 气象因子 关系 

分 类 号：S435.112.1[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]