香港未来30年间的土地利用变化趋势预测  

Forecasting the Land-use Change Trends of Hongkong in the Next 30 years

作　　者：郑敏[1] 庾思慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州大学地理科学学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2009年第6期2648-2650,2654,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：教育部科学技术研究重点项目(206107)

摘　　要：用香港1993和2006年SPOT遥感数据,在RS和GIS技术的支持下,运用马尔柯夫预测模型预测了未来30年研究区土地的变化情况。结果表明,从1993-2006年期间,研究区域的土地利用类型的面积发生了很大变化,其中主要以建设用地和绿地的面积大幅度增加为主;在未来的30年里,建设用地面积在整个土地面积中所占的百分比将小幅度减小趋于稳定值,而绿地的面积百分比则将持续小幅度增加趋于一个稳定值。在总体上,各个土地利用类型的面积变化将逐渐趋于一个较为平稳发展的状态。This study aimed to predict land-use change trend of Hongkong in next 30 years by Markov prediction model, in the support of the RS and GIS and base on the SPOT remote sensing data of Hongkong during 1993 and 2006. The results showed that in the period of these thirteen years from 1993 to 2006, great changes have taken place on the land use types in the study area, which was mainly characterized as the greatly increased green land and construction land ; in the next 30 years, the proportion of the construction area in the total land area would reduce step by step gradually and achieve a steady value, but the proportion of the green land area would continue to increase gradually and also come up to a steady value. In the whole, the area of each land-use type would gradually become a balanced developing state.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 马尔柯夫模型 转移矩阵 香港 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]