太湖生态系统发育的Ecopath with Ecosim动态模拟  

Simulation of ecosystem dynamics of Lake Taihu using Ecopath with Ecosim model

作　　者：李云凯[1,2] 宋兵 陈勇 禹娜[1] 陈立侨[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学生命科学学院,上海200062 [2]School of Marine Sciences,University of Maine [3]浙江海事局,浙江杭州310005

出　　处：《中国水产科学》2009年第2期257-265,共9页Journal of Fishery Sciences of China

基　　金：教育部重大培育项目(704023);海外优秀学者自然科学基金项目(30028018);上海市科委重大基金(08DZ1203101);浙江科技厅重点基金项目(2008C12009);E-研究院基金(E03009)

摘　　要：以20世纪60年代作为初始状态,采用Ecosim对1961-2002年间太湖生态系统的发育动态进行了模拟。结果表明,在时间强制序列的驱动下,模型较准确地预测了各个功能组的捕捞量和生物量的变化趋势。结果较好地解释了太湖生态系统的发育机制。在不断增强的渔业捕捞压力下,大中型鱼类尤其是顶级肉食性鱼类的资源量遭到破坏,从而减少了对小型鱼虾类的捕食压力,使得这些r型物种占据了系统的统治地位,它们对植食性浮游动物的控制作用,由此从上至下(top-down)地改变了太湖生态系统的结构。而水体的富营养化使得太湖初级生产力显著提高,由于蓝藻不适于动物摄食和利用,使得大量初级生产力未能循环利用,造成水华暴发和底泥有机质富积,进而由下而上(bottom-up)地对整个生态系统造成了不良的影响。因此,建议保护凶猛鱼类和大型鱼类资源,利用营养级串联效应控制小型鱼虾类,来恢复太湖生态系统自然结构、减缓其富营养化程度和逆向发育的进程。A dynamic ecosystem model was developed for Lake Taihu for the time period of 1961 to 2002 to explore how changes in economically important fish populations in this ecosystem can be attributed to fishing and environmental forcing.The model was found to have good fits to the data collected from various monitoring programs and provide reasonable projections about the dynamics of various fish populations in the ecosystem.The ecosystem appeared to develop reversely.The stress resulting from increasingly intensive fishing had changed the structure of Lake Taihu ecosystem through a＂top-down＂route.The r-selected fishes became the dominated species of the system due to the depletion of larger fishes and top predators,which had a great control on the herbivorous zooplankton.On the other side,the excessive primary production of blue algae from eutrophication resulted in the explosion of algae bloom and the sediment of organic matter and altered the whole ecosystem through a＂bottom-up＂route.We suggest that reducing the fishing stress on top predators and larger fishes on high trophic-levels and controlling the biomass of the species from lower trophic levels be effective approach for solving the current problems facing Lake Taihu.

关 键 词：太湖 生态系统发育 ECOSIM 动态模拟 

分 类 号：S965[农业科学—水产养殖] X171[农业科学—水产科学]