水库大坝突发事件应急预案可行性评价方法初探  

A study on feasibility evaluation for emergency plan of emergent events of reservoirs

作　　者：程翠云[1] 钱新[1] 万玉秋[1] 盛金保[2] 李雷[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏南京210093 [2]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2009年第1期71-75,共5页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划资助项目:水库大坝风险控制非工程措施研究(2006BAC14B05)

摘　　要：编制水库大坝突发事件应急预案是大坝安全管理的重要内容,而可行性则是应急预案的基本要求,直接影响其实施效果.编制的应急预案是否具有可行性并不确定,也难以全部通过演练来判断.本文论述了构建水库大坝应急预案可行性评价指标体系的指导思想,对构建指标体系进行了初步探讨,设计了目标层、准则层和指标层的指标体系框架,确定指标序号法等评价方法,对水库大坝应急预案的可行性评价进行了实例研究,根据计算的权重值,确定应急预案的可行性评价等级,并提出提高可行性的对策措施及该方法的不足之处,为水库大坝应急预案制定和评价提供参考.Emergency planning is an important content of dam safety management and feasibility is its basic requirement which influences directly its implementation effects. Whether emergency planning is feasible is not known, and cannot be entirely judged by drilling. The studies about it are limited at present. To assess feasibility of emergency planning of reservoir dams, this paper discusses the guiding principle for construction of the feasibility evaluation index systems, and a preliminary design is made of an index system framework which includes three levels： aim, standard and index. After determining the assessment methods such as the method of index number, the paper chooses an example to evaluate its feasibility. Its aim is to provide references for the formulation and assessment of feasible emergency planning for emergent events of reservoirs.

关 键 词：应急预案 可行性 权重 指标序号法 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]