我国货币政策工具有效性计量检验  

Measurement Test for Effectiveness of China's Monetary Policy Tools

作　　者：耿庆峰[1] 黄志刚[2] 

机构地区：[1]闽江学院经济系,福建福州350108 [2]福州大学管理学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《河南金融管理干部学院学报》2009年第1期31-34,共4页Journal of Henan College of Financial Management Cadres

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(06BYJ111)

摘　　要：运用单位根检验与协整检验,选取中国2005年8月-2008年6月相关经济月度数据,对人民币汇改以来利率对汇率的影响进行分析后发现:在目前我国资本项目没有完全开放条件下,汇率对利率并不敏感。这也许是最近一两年国家频频动用货币政策工具,宏观调控效果却不甚理想的原因。在中国这样实行资本管制的国家,只有运用利率—汇率联动机制,才能达到经济的内外均衡。随着人民币汇率形成市场化的推进,其对利率变动的敏感性也会随之增强。By using unit root test and co - integration test, selecting related economic monthly data in China from August, 2005 to June, 2008, an analysis is made on the impact of exchange rate since the reform of RMB exchange rates, finding that： the exchange rate is not sensitive to interest rates under the present conditions in China with capital account being not fully convertible. This is perhaps the reason China＇ s frequent use of monetary policy tools in recent one or two years, but with less macro - regulation effect. In China, a country with adoption of capital control, only by using interest rates -linked exchange rate mechanism can internal and external economic equilibrium be achieved. With proceeding of market - oriented formation of the RMB exchange rate, its sensitivity to changes in interest rates will also be enhanced.

关 键 词：宏观调控 货币政策 人民币汇率 利率-汇率联动机制 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]