燃煤型地氟病非骨相早期判别模型探讨  

Exploration for An Early Discriminant Model of Non-skeletal Phase in Endemic Fluorosis Exposed to Coal-Burning

作　　者：李安明[1,2,3,4,5] 严本武[1,2,3,4,5] 谭晓东 王福元[1,2,3,4,5] 李明健 杜祖祥[1,2,3,4,5] 唐圣智 罗琼 阎俊 刘光明 胡瑞华[1,2,3,4,5] 曹淑彬 秦先钊[1,2,3,4,5] 李杰 瞿德成 

机构地区：[1]湖北医科大学卫生学教研室 [2]湖北医科大学管理系 [3]湖北省卫生防疫站地方病科 [4]郧阳地区卫生防疫站 [5]郧阳地区行溪县卫生防疫站

出　　处：《中华预防医学杂志》1998年第1期16-18,共3页Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的早期发现、诊断及治疗地氟病。方法按１１配对设计及流行病学调查方法，收集氟病区和非病区４类人群环境氟等６类指标。经多类判别分析，建立４类人群的判别分析模型。环境及生物材料含氟量用氟电极法；生活条件以测量＋询问法；骨关节功能用测量法；生化酶学指标用试剂盒及凝胶电泳法；其他指标用询问法。将４类人群资料经ＳＡＳ和ＭＤＡＳ软件完成判别分析。结果４类判别函数总的差异有显著性。经已知样品分别回代，其判对符合率平均为８５．７８％（８３．３３％～９８．８６％）。计算机产生随机新样品，新分类结果后验概率在８６．３９％～９９．９９％范围。结论除第三类可能因样本数太少判别效果稍差外，其他方程式有９５％的把握，可在地氟病区实际用于燃煤型地氟病早期判别、或作为药物疗效考核方法。Objective To detect, diagnose and treat for endemic fluorosis earlier. Methods Six kinds of indices, such as environmental fluoride level, were collected from the population in epidemic and non epidemic areas of endemic fluorosis with a 1∶1 paired match design. A discriminant analysis model was established by multivariate analysis. Levels of fluoride in environment and biological materials were determined by fluoride electrode method. Living condition of the subjects were measured and interviewed. Function of skeletons and joints was measured. Biochemical and enzyme indices were measured with reagent kits and gel electrophoresis. Other indices were measured by interview. All data collected were analyzed by SAS and MDAS computer software. Results There was significant overall difference between four kinds of discriminant functions, with an overall agreement of 85.78% (83.33% to 98 86%), based on resubstitution with sampled data. Posterior probabilities for new classification of sampled data automatically and randomly produced from a computer were 86.39% to 99.99%. Conclusion The discriminant functions mentioned above, except for the third one with a too small sample size, can be used in early discrimination of endemic fluorosis caused by exposure to coal burning, or in evaluation for the effectiveness of pharmaceutical therapy, with a power of 95%.

关 键 词：氟中毒 地方病 燃煤型 非骨相诊断 诊断 

分 类 号：R599.904[医药卫生—内科学] R599.9[医药卫生—临床医学]