配电网可靠性指标的灰色组合预测方法及应用  

Grey Combination Forecasting Method and Its Application in Reliability Index of Distribution System

作　　者：程德才[1] 赵书强[1] 马燕峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,河北保定071003

出　　处：《电力科学与工程》2009年第3期18-21,共4页Electric Power Science and Engineering

摘　　要：针对配电网可靠性的特点,在充分考虑可靠性指标的历史变化趋势和顾及各种相关因素对可靠性指标的影响的情况下,分别建立了基于历史统计数据的横向预测模型和考虑相关因素影响的纵向预测模型,形成了灰色组合预测模型,充分发挥了灰色预测模型所需样本小、精确度高的优点。对某地区配电网可靠性统计数据的实例分析,证明了该方法的有效性。In view of the characteristics of distribution system reliability, considering the historical trend of reliability index and the effect of each correlative factor, the transverse and lengthways forecast models were constructed in this paper. The grey model for the advantages of high accuracy and small samples was built. This paper presented a new practical method for improving the planning and design, operation and maintenance of distribution system. It was proved to be validity through an reliability example of statistical data analysis in the distribution system of one certain area.

关 键 词：配电网 可靠性 预测 相关因素 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]