次贷危机影响下我国国内增加值及就业发展态势  

Development Trend Forecasting for Value-added and Employment under the Influence of Sub-prime Crisis

作　　者：郭菊娥[1,2] 孟磊[1,2] 郭广涛[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]西安交通大学中科预测研究基地,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2009年第2期1-6,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:70473072;70773091)

摘　　要：2008年7月份以来进出口增速的快速下滑是美国次贷危机及中国前期抑制过热的宏观政策共同作用的结果。本文分析了二者对我国外贸时滞性影响的机理,利用反映加工贸易特点的非竞争型投入占用产出模型测算了次贷危机背景下出口对我国国内增加值及就业的影响,并通过态势预测对这一影响的程度做出了估计。分析结果表明,中国加工出口的国内增加值对出口变化的敏感性强于非加工出口,旅游、文体娱乐、石油加工、纺织、服装制造等部门对出口变动最为敏感。由于次贷危机通过贸易渠道影响我国经济的传导机制以及国家经济刺激政策从实施到效果显现均具有时滞性,预计明年进出口增速将大幅下滑。2008年总出口产生的直接国内增加值将少增200亿美元左右,在参考情景中将影响2008年直接就业792.7万人。2009年进出口增速预计将进一步下滑,其对国内增加值和就业的影响将更为明显。Sub-prime crisis and China＇s macro-policies has made the import ＆ export growth rate falling down rapidly after July 2008. This paper analyzes the time-lagged influence mechanism of the two factors on the foreign trade, uses extended input-output table in non-eompotitive imports type of China to calculate the influence on the value-added and employment in China, and forecasts the degree of these influences. The analysis results show that the domestic value-added of China＇ s processing exports is more sensitive to the export increase rate changes than that of non-processing exports. Tourism sector, culture, sports and entertainment sector, petroleum processing sector, and texitile and Apparel Sector are relatively sensitive to the export increase rate changes. Due to the time-lagged characteristics of the conduction mechanism of sub- prime crisis to China＇ s economy through foreign trade and of the macro-policy from implementing to working, China＇ s foreign trade increase rate will be likely to drop. In 2008, direct value-added produced by total exports will reduce $ 2 million, and employment will reduce by 7927 thousand people. The influence will be more serious in 2009.

关 键 词：次贷危机 进出口 投入产出法 就业 

分 类 号：F201[经济管理—国民经济]