植物对气候变化生理生态响应的不确定性分析  

Uncertainty Analysis in Physio-ecological Response of Plant to Climate Change

作　　者：李明财[1,2] 朱教君[1] 孙一荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,沈阳110016 [2]天津市气候中心,天津300074

出　　处：《西北植物学报》2009年第1期207-214,共8页Acta Botanica Boreali-Occidentalia Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30671669,30830083);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向资助项目(SCX2-YW-N-031)

摘　　要：生态系统对全球气候变化的响应模式有利于人类预测与适应未来生态环境变化,植物作为陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,对全球气候变化的响应具有重要作用。本文通过对近年来植物对气候变化的生理生态响应研究中(包括定点控制实验,空间代替时间样带),植物响应模式的复杂性、多样性及可变性等诸多不确定性进行分析,以探讨预测未来气候情景下植物的动态变化及生理生态响应过程。分析结果认为,造成这些不确定性的主要原因包括:(1)利用空间代替时间的样带研究中,往往忽略了植物的非线性响应,存在明显的阈值;(2)样带及定点研究中,由于各种气候因子的耦合,很难确定各种气候因子对植物生理生态学特性影响的权重;(3)定点控制实验中往往忽略了植物对气候变化的适应性,使实验结果很难代表更长时间尺度上的反映模式;(4)在相同的气候变化条件下,不同植物的响应有可能存在明显差异。提出了今后植物对气候变化生理生态响应研究的建议。It is benifical for human to predict and adapt to variations of future eco-environment by understanding the responsing pattern of ecosystem to global climate change. As an important （component of terrestrial ecosystem,the response of vegetation to global change is being more important than ever. The uncertainties i. g. complexity, diversity and variability in the responsing pattern of vegetation to climate change were analyzed in eco-physiological studies including control experiment and space-for-time substitu- tion to predict the vegetation dynamics and physio-ecological process under future climatic scenarios. The results indicate that these uncertainties mainly result from： （1）The method of substituting time with space, responses of vegetation are often nonlinear with obvious thresholds; （2）The weight of each factor affecting plant physio-ecological characteristics is very difficult to be determined as a result of coupling of various cli- matic factors in transect or control studies; （3）Short-term experiment results in some control studies are very difficult to reflect the real response of vegetation to climate change in a long-term scale due to the acclimatization of plants; （4）Different plant species may show obviously different responses even under the same condition of climate change. Finally, suggestions on physio-ecological responses of vegetation to climate in the future have been proposed.

关 键 词：气候变化 生理生态特性 不确定性 样带研究 控制实验 

分 类 号：Q945.79[生物学—植物学]