防空作战中航母生存概率的数学模型  

The mathematical model of aircraft carrier survival probability in air defense combat

作　　者：冷画屏[1,2] 周智超[2] 王慕鸿[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学计算机学院,广东广州510090 [2]海军兵种指挥学院,广东广州510430

出　　处：《舰船科学技术》2009年第3期128-130,共3页Ship Science and Technology

摘　　要：研究航母在防空作战中的生存概率模型对于航母编队的防空装备需求和防空战法论证具有重要意义。从航母编队对空防御的基本战法入手,首先建立了攻击方对航母编队攻击的导弹数量总量的计算公式,然后在假设遭受敌饱和攻击的条件下,基于排队论方法建立了航母防空作战生存概率的数学模型,推导了来袭导弹流穿过多层防空系统后的强度变化规律,并对防空导弹和火炮系统对来袭导弹的平均服务时间进行了估算,从而得出航母生存概率。最后举例给出了计算结果,并对计算结果进行了分析。The research on aircraft carrier survival probability has great significance to equipment demand determination and air defense combat tactics demonstration. Based on the basic tactics of aircraft carrier formation in air defense combat, we first give a formula to compute the total amount of enemy incoming missiles. Then the mathematical model of aircraft carrier survival probability is built using queuing theory method under the condition of saturation striking. The intensity variation law of missile flow which breaks through multilayer air defense systems and average serving time of air defense system to incoming missile are also derived. At last ,the calculation results and the analysis conclusion haven been given.

关 键 词：航母编队 防空作战 生存概率 

分 类 号：E843[军事—战术学] E925.671[军事—军事装备学]