中国农村居民消费的时间偏好与扩大内需政策创新  

The Temporal Tendency of Chinese Rural Resident Consumption and the Politic Renovation for Enlarging Domestic Demand

作　　者：叶德珠[1] 陆家骝[2] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院副教授,广东广州510632 [2]中山大学行为金融与金融经济学研究所,广东广州510275

出　　处：《学术研究》2009年第3期82-88,共7页Academic Research

基　　金：2007年国家社会科学基金项目(07AJL003);2008年广东省社会科学基金项目(08YE-05);2008年广东省教育厅育苗工程项目(wym08051)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：中国农村居民受传统文化影响在消费时表现出"重未来、轻现在"的时间偏好。本文揭示了这种时间偏好特征中蕴含的认知偏差根源,并用行为经济学双曲线贴现模型对其进行了技术表达和逻辑演绎,以此剖析了农村居民消费拖延行为偏差的形成机制,从而可从"内因"的角度解释中国农村高储蓄、低消费之谜。该模型派生出来的消费锁定技术能有效克制农村居民的消费认知偏差,抑制其不规则时间偏好作用发挥,纠正消费拖延,达到"治本"的效果,可成为在农村实现扩大内需政策创新的一个理想选项。Chinese rural residents exhibit a temporal preference of overweighting the future consumption but underweighting the instant consumption.The paper reveals this Chinese peasants'cognitive bias,and make a technological expression to it with behavioral hyperbolic discounting model,so as to explain how the behavioral mechanism of the consumption delays Chinese rural residents'consumption.Thus the puzzle of high saving and low consumption in Chinese rural area can be resolved from the aspect of inner factors.The consumption committing technology,which is endogenous from the view of this paper's model,can effectively restraint the excessive self-control bias of rural resident and thus lock in the consumption level to the optimal one,which caters to the stage and operation requirement of government's intervention.As a result,it can become a perfect choice for settling the problem of China's rural resident consumption delaying and realizing the policy innovation for enlarging internal demand.

关 键 词：农村居民消费 时间偏好 双曲线贴现 扩大内需 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]