应用模糊回归模型预测玉米蚜的种群动态  

Forecast the Population Dynamics of the Corn Aphid by Fuzzy Regression Model

作　　者：贾伟宽[1] 王慧[1] 丁世飞[2] 苏春阳[2] 陈斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学植物保护学院,山东泰安271018 [2]中国矿业大学计算机科学与技术学院,江苏徐州221008

出　　处：《石河子大学学报（自然科学版）》2009年第1期11-14,共4页Journal of Shihezi University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40574001);中国科学院智能信息处理重点实验室开放基金项目(IIP2006-2)

摘　　要：在研究昆虫生态,对害虫的发生进行预测时,并不要求预测得到十分精确的数值,且也难以得到,只要预测出害虫的发生趋势即可,模糊理论对处理此类问题有独特优势。提出应用模糊回归技术,针对山东宁阳1989-2004年的历史资料,建立玉米蚜的种群动态预测模糊回归模型。同时与利用多元线性回归模型分析预测的结果进行比较,从比较看出用模糊回归模型进行预测有更高的准确性和更好的适用性,证明了新模型的有效性。Studing of insect ecology, predicting the pest occurrence, it does not require forecast the precise value, and it is difficult to get. So we only need forecast the pest occurrence trend. Fuzzy theory to deal with this problems has unique advantage. By using the technique of Fuzzy Regression, pointing at the data of 16 years, from 1989 - 2004, in Ningyang, Shandong province. The Fuzzy Regression model （FRM） is built to forecast the population dynamics of the corn aphid. Meanwhile the result of Fuzzy Regression model is contrasted to the result of multivariate linear regression model. The Fuzzy Regression model is proved to have higher veracity and better applicability. It＇ s proved that the new model is veilfled.

关 键 词：预测预报 模糊回归 玉米蚜 

分 类 号：S431.9[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]