环境影响评价中人文因素作用的空间计量  

A spatial econometric analysis of the impacts of human factors on environment in China

作　　者：孙克[1] 徐中民[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所寒旱区流域水文及应用生态研究室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《生态学报》2009年第3期1563-1570,共8页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40671076);中国科学院西部行动计划资助项目(KZCX2-XB2-04-04)

摘　　要：辨明人文因素对环境影响作用的大小,并依此找寻发展的对策是当前可持续发展研究的核心问题之一。采用中国2000年各省(区、市)的水足迹作为环境影响测算指标,运用空间自相关模型,分析了中国2000年水足迹的空间分布特征,结果表明:中国各省市的水足迹具有明显的空间相关性,在地理上存在集聚现象。进而在传统的人文驱动因素的随机回归影响模型——STIRPAT模型的基础上,通过加入空间项构建空间滞后模型和空间误差模型,定量地检验了中国的人口数量和富裕程度等人文因素对环境的影响,结果表明:人口数量对环境影响显著,而富裕程度对其影响较小;转变传统的经济增长方式,走新型工业化道路对环境影响显著,城市化率对环境没有显著影响;在控制人口变量的基础上,现有样本数据支持倒U形的环境Kuznets曲线假说,其拐点值为10560.92元;在技术水效率方面,海南的技术水效率最高,而青海和内蒙古的技术水效率最低。Growing evidence demonstrated that human has dramatically altered the global environment. Identifying the human factors driving environmental impacts is a hot topic in the field of sustainable development. One key limitation to a precise understanding of anthropogenic impacts is the absence of a set of refined analytic tools. The water footprint index has been used as a comprehensive impact measure of water use in relation to consumption of people, which indirectly reflect anthropogenic pressure on the environment. Using techniques of spatial econometrics, we study the water footprint of 31 provincial regions in China. The spatial linkage of provinces and cities is described with a spatial weights matrix. With a view to dismantling the anthropogenic driving forces of water footprint, the modified IPAT-called STIRPAT （Stochastic impacts by regression on Population （P）, Affluence （A） and Technology （T））-has been employed as a common analytic framework. It is evident that the spatial dependence across regions is strong enough to distort the ordinary least squares （OLS） algorithm. This paper analysis Chinese provincial water footprint based on the traditional STIRPAT model through spatial econometric analysis as spatial lag model and spatial error model. Our analyses show that population is a major driver of water footprint, and it has a proportional effect on water footprint, and affluence monotonically increased the water footprint with a relative less degree than population. Changing the traditional mode of economic growth and taking the path to new industrialization, appeared to affect the water footprint. Urbanization has no distinct impact on environment.Economic growth in itself did not offer a solution to environmental problems. Our results indicate that, when affluence approached about 10560.92 RMB in GDP under the precondition of controlling the population＇s impact, environmental stresses tend to fall below a strict proportionality. The productivity of （virtual） water in Hainan i

关 键 词：人文因素 环境影响 水足迹 STIRPAT模型 空间计量模型 

分 类 号：X820.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程]