花粉过敏性疾病预报初探  

A Preliminary Study on Warning of Allergic Diseases Caused by Pollen

作　　者：白玉荣[1] 刘彬贤[1] 段丽瑶[1] 庞立[2] 黄嘉佑[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津市气象科学研究所环境气象研究室,天津300074 [2]天津市胸科医院,天津300051 [3]北京大学大气科学系,北京100871

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2009年第3期229-232,共4页Journal of Environment and Health

基　　金：中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2005M26;GMATG2007Z10;CMATG2008M29)

摘　　要：目的探讨花粉过敏性疾病与花粉浓度以及气象要素的关系,对花粉过敏性疾病进行预报,为公众提供服务。方法利用天津市2001—2005年气象要素、气象铁塔站逐日花粉观测数据、天津市公安医院和天津市胸科医院逐日花粉过敏患者皮肤试验呈阳性病例,进行了花粉过敏性疾病季节变化规律分析、花粉过敏性疾病与花粉浓度、水汽压、风速等气象要素的相关统计分析,建立了花粉过敏性疾病预报方程。结果旬花粉过敏性疾病发病人次(y)与加权的花粉浓度(x11)、发病前2旬水汽压(x22)呈明显的正相关,复相关系数为0.805。花粉过敏性疾病预报方程为y=2.385+0.0793x11+3.507x22。结论花粉过敏发病与花粉浓度密切相关,然而气温、湿度、花粉种类也是影响花粉过敏性疾病的重要因素。Objective By discussing the relationship between allergic diseases caused by pollen, pollen density and meteorological factors, making out the warning for the allergic diseases caused by pollen, in order to provide a public service. Methods The data of meteorology from 2001 to 2005 of Tianjin, the pollen monitoring of the Weather Iron Tower Station day by day and the allergic patients whose skin tests were positive in Tianjin Municipal Chest Hospital and Tianjin Municipal Police Hospital were taken to statistical analysis on the rule of seasonal allergic diseases, the relationship between allergic diseases and pollen density and meteorological factors （such as vapor pressure and wind speed）, and the prediction equations were obtained for allergic diseases caused by pollen. Results There was obviously positive correlation between the incidence rate of pollinosis （y）, weighted pollen density （x11） and vapor pressure（x22） within twenty-days before the onset. The multiple correlation coefficient was 0.805 and the prediction equation was y =2.385 ＋ 0.079 3x11 ＋3.507x22. Conclusion There is a close correlation between the incidence rate of pollinosis and pollen density. The allergic diseases caused by pollen are also affected by the change of air temperature, varieties of pollen and humidity.

关 键 词：花粉 过敏反应 气象要素 预报 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]